Peak Oil and the Consequent Collapse of Civilization.
Matt Savinar’s website gives a broad and compelling overview of the fix we’re in, and it debunks ridiculous ideas such as “deep” and “abiotic” oil, and also hydrogen as a fuel. It’s worth reading the site’s breaking news every day.LOL. At least we have Obama to save us.
Even if there were a peak oil, nothing precludes biodiesel from being a viable option, right?
ReplyDeleteThe following companies; Arup, FirstGroup, Foster and Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solarcentury, Stagecoach Group, Virgin Group, Yahoo; have formed a "UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy Security" and release their report today. Foreword from Lord Ron Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell.
ReplyDeleteRead and weep here:
http://peakoil.solarcentury.com/wp-c...port-final.pdf
Quantum Flux,
ReplyDeleteYou are absolutely correct. Even if chemistry were incorrect in saying hydrocarbons are chemical compounds and not biological organisms, biodiesel would still be infinite.
"Physical peak oil, which I have no reason to accept as a valid statement either on theoretical, scientific or ideological grounds, would be insensitive to prices. In fact the whole hypothesis of peak oil – which is that there is a certain amount of oil in the ground, consumed at a certain rate, and then it's finished – does not react to anything.
Whereas we believe that whatever can be turned into oil strongly depends on technology and technology depends on prices as well.
Therefore there will never be a moment when the world runs out of oil because there will always be a price at which the last drop of oil can clear the market. And you can turn anything into oil into if you are willing to pay the financial and environmental price."
Christof Rühl of British Petroleum On The Peak oil Hoax.
ELECTION 2008:
ReplyDelete"It's not how you won, it's what you do."
Policy is where the rubber meets the road. Bills have to be proposed in Congress or by the President then passed in Congress and signed by the President.
Nancy Pelosi, Democratic Speaker of the House of Represenitives stated in her response to the election results that Democrats' priority is to reduce reliance on imported foreign oil.
Fine.
But the question then becomes what policies will be implemented to achieve that goal.
The Democratic Leadership is on record as supporting expanded offshore oil exploration & production. However, this policy was adopted under political duress in September when the threat of failing to gain House and Senate seats loomed as a possibility in November.
Now that the election is over, will Democrats revert back to their previous policy of demonizing petroluem and banning expansion of offshore drilling?
This is a primary energy policy question facing the United States.
"...it's what you do."
Conservation, also known as efficient and economical use of resources is a good thing. Choking off the economy to spur conservation is radical and Americans won't tolerate it.
That "Peak" oil was mostly, if not entirely, a creature of the left is well known.
Now that the left has a stake in the executive power in American politics and most "folks" don't have an interest in the peaker's "Doomer" vision of the world, will these peakers continue to promote their "vision"?
Will Democrats interested in governing, marginalize the "Doomers" in their camp? Or throw off the peakers expectations of lower living standards?
They better is they know what's politically good for them.
LATOC is a commercial enterprise selling books about "Doom". There will always be people that get suckered into that mindset and pay for the privilege.
The "children's" website announcing their belief in "Doom" is sad for that one particular group of children, but most young adults are looking for the common American Dream.
Notice the contrast, the Oil Is Mastery website promotes ideas, and mostly is upbeat in its assessment of the furture.
The scientific evidence supporting Abiotic Oil theory and the already discovered ultra-deepwater oil deposits are the bedrock for this optimistic tenor.
I feel pity for those who run around and think their world is "Doomed".
No matter.
I will continue to write about the science that supports Abiotic Oil theory.
By the way, the "children" wrote that LATOC dismissed "deep" and abiotic oil. But in reviewing the LATOC site (I'd read it before), what struck me is how little is devoted to dismissing "deep" oil or Abiotic Oil theory. The situation is simple enough, they don't have a ready answer, so better to ignore offshore oil production as much as possible.
Mostly, LATOC said "deep" oil is expensive; no kidding. I wrote as much in my initial comment on the proceeding post. Yet, with a productive economy, it's an expense that can be readily borne.
Productivity increases and efficiency increases due to technological innovations aren't included in "Doomer" thinking.
The "Doomer" cult is a good example of sheep led by a demagogue who plays on follower's fears and insecurities.
Election 2008:
"...it's what you do."
SAUDI ARABIA'S ANSWER TO "PEAK" OIL: EXPAND PRODUCTION
ReplyDeleteSaudi Arabia sits atop the world's largest proven oil reserves. Mostly located in one oil field: Ghawar, the largest known oil deposit in the world.
Mathew Simmons, a peaker, who famously said last Summer that $200 a barrel oil was just around the corner is the author of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy.
Simmons wrote that Saudi Arabia was close to "Peak" and its "Peak" would signal the imminent advent of "Peak" oil on a world-wide basis.
Simmons' prediction of Saudi "Peak" looks all wet, as his oil price prediction turned out to be.
The Oil Is Mastery website previously posted, Saudi Arabia, along with other Middle East oil producers is planning to expand its oil production.
Saudi Arabia recently reaffirmed its commitment to expand oil production.
November 6, 2008 (RigZone) Economic Turmoil Unlikely to Affect Saudia Aramco's Mega-Projects, "The current global economic downturn will not impede Saudi Aramco mega-projects, Khalid G. Al-Buainain told a group of 300 energy industry professionals.
In fact, a slowdown may actually have benefits from the standpoint of easing tight construction supplies. Al-Buainain, Saudi Aramco's senior vice president of Refining, Marketing and International, made the remarks Oct. 26 during a meeting of the Society of Petroleum Engineers."
This is Saudi Arabia's answer to "Peak" oil.
Would Saudi Arabia expand oil production knowing it's near "Peak"?
Or is it more likely that Ghawar is little closer to "Peak" than it was in 1951 when it first started production because it's constantly being "topped up" from below?
I suggest Saudi Arabia has measured pressure levels in Ghawar and noted pressure remains healthy at the well heads.
Another solid piece of evidence pointing to the fallacy of "Peak" oil.
IEA report predicts oil will rise to $100 - $200 a barrel when recession ends:
ReplyDeletehttp://energyanalyst.wordpress.com/2008/11/06/energy-agency-iea-predicts-100-oil-urges-energy-changes/
TWO PIECES OF THE TECHNOLOGY ACTION
ReplyDelete"Source rock" is put out by oil geologists to make it look like they understand the oil geology of a particular play, but the real action is in advanced seismic imaging. 3D seismic imaging is the "work horse" that finds the oil.
Oil geologists would be better off if they concentrated on 'source faults'. There is some evidence suggesting, indeed, this is beginning to be the case.
Here are two reports, one announcing availability of seismic imaging services and the other announcing the opening of a subsea operations base.
Offshore, November 6, 2008, DeepBlue Technologies opens subsea operations base, HOUSTON - "DeepBlue Technologies has opened a new subsea operations base in Broussard, Louisiana. The 6,000-sq ft (557-sq m) facility features a 10-ton (9-metric-ton) overhead crane, a tool string assembly system, a 15-ft (4.5-m) wet assembly area, and a biological water treatment and recirculation system."
Offshore, November 4, 2008, Sonsub introduces subsea project visualization, analysis tools, ABERDEEN, UK - "The Sonsub division of Saipem UK has developed a range of 3D visualization and dynamic analysis tools to streamline subsea project management."
These two component sectors of the offshore oil production enterprise are much more important than identifying imaginary "source rocks".
Source faults are the real McCoy, "source rocks" just prop up the myth.
SPEAKING OF 'SOURCE FAULTS'
ReplyDeleteIn the previous comment, I alluded to possible recognition among oil geologists that 'source faults' are important to identifying areas with oil deposits, and linked a post.
An update on that idea has been posted on the website, Sedimentary Basins and Petroleum Geology, The long and short of faults, November 6, 2008.
Warning: The fault being studied doesn't have oil as stated by the author, but, per the author, the technique used could be employed in analogous faults in oil bearing areas.
The basic idea is that faults evolve over time. The understanding of this evolution may help in understanding the faults' structure. This in turn could help identify potential oil plays in the stratigraphic structure of the fault.
Faults have been identified for a long time as oil trapping structures, but with Abiotic Oil theory, faults not only are the site of oil trapping structures, but also are the 'source' for the oil itself.
Most faults extend deep into the Earth's crust and possibly even into contact with the mantle.
Understanding fault history and development is important to oil exploration using an Abiotic Oil theory model to predict where oil could be located.
An Abiotic Oil theory interpretation of the post will be presented in the near future.
Well, the chemistry that J.F. Kenney published is not incorrect. However, he does dismiss the possibility of organic molecules of much higher chemical potentials being stable enough to last long enough on rock cycle time scales.
ReplyDeleteSpeculation here, but what Coalman said about long chain triglycerides having a high enough chemical potential to produce kerogen, and the conversion of kerogen to petroleum, well, I don't really know why that shouldn't happen in cases of cool/anoxic environments like what was largely present during the ice age. A rapid cooling of the Earth could very well cause freezing events, and the weight of the ice would compact the ground below it too, much moreso than the City Dumps achieve with heavy duty steamrollers which create an evironment for methane production.
Quantum_Flux:
ReplyDeleteYou worked out the calculations?
Thanks for checking that out. I'll admit, my math and chemistry skills aren't high enough to do that kind of checking.
What does that say about Coal Man's angry accusations against J.F. Kenney?
Quantum_Flux says, "[J.F. Kenney] does dismiss the possibility of organic molecules of much higher chemical potentials being stable enough to last long enough on rock cycle time scales."
Also, I suggest there is an issue as to how much organic detritus ever ends up on a sedimentary bottom. Most never does, so when you look at total amounts of petroleum produced and left to produce versus amounts of needed organic detritus, it doesn't seem likely that organic detritus can account for the total of petroleum.
As far as the ice age is concerned, it would seem organic detritus production would be severly restricted by the cold.
Always remember, methane production is a completely different story.
The ball game for "fossil" theory is the formation of C215H330, heavy atomic weight hydrocarbons because that is what "fossil" theory says breaks apart into lighter hydrocarbons to form petroleum.
ICELAND AND NORWAY AGREE ON LEASING RIGHTS
ReplyDeleteIceland and Norway have agreed on leasing rights in the area between the two countries' respective continental shelfs.
Norway and Iceland sign Agreement on hydrocarbon deposits, The Norway Post - November 7, 2008 - "The Foreign Ministers of Iceland and Norway met in Iceland this week to sign an Agreement on transboundary hydrocarbon deposits.
According to the Agreement, if it is established that a hydrocarbon deposit extends to the continental shelf of both countries, a special agreement shall be reached on the apportionment of the deposit between the countries and on the exploitation of it as a unit."
"The Icelandic government says that the agreements signed are a prerequisite for granting licences for exploration and production of hydrocarbons in the Dreki Area on the Icelandic continental shelf. It says the area will be announced open for applications next year."
This agreement suggests both governments entertain the possibility that hydrocarbons can be found on the abyssal sea-floor between the two countries' respective continental shelves.
Abyssal sea-floor is not where "fossil" theory predicts oil can be found.
On the other hand, Abiotic Oil theory easily explains any hydrocarbons located in an abyssal sea-floor area.
46 Companies Apply for New Licenses in Norwegian Continental Shelf (RigZone) - November 7, 2008 - "By today's deadline for applications in the 20th licensing round on the Norwegian continental shelf, the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy has received applications from 46 qualified companies. The Ministry aims at awarding new production licenses during spring 2009. At the same time the comprehensive Management plan for the Norwegian Sea is finalized.
"It is positive that this many companies want to aim towards new opportunities in the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea. Petroleum activities that are undertaken in accordance with important environmental and fisheries concerns can make a significant impact on employment, industrial development and value creation in the northern areas," said Minister of Petroleum and Energy Terje Riis-Johansen."
When both of these reports are taken together, a picture emerges that hydrocarbon exploration & development is steaming full speed ahead in the icy waters off Noway's coast.
SHELL DIVES INTO SUBSALT OIL LEASE OFF BRAZIL COAST
ReplyDeleteShell is diving into the subsalt sweepstakes off Brazil's coast.
Shell has substantial ultra-deepwater experience in the Gulf of Mexico.
Shell to Drill in Brazil's Subsalt Region in 2009, SAO PAULO (Dow Jones) - November 7, 2008 - "Royal Dutch Shell PLC will start drilling in Brazil's promising subsalt region in late 2009, according to a report Friday in local financial daily Valor Economico.
According to the report, Shell will drill in the BM-S-54 block in the Santos Basin, the area off the coast of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo states that has seen a wave of new discoveries. Shell holds 100% of the block. Drilling will start when a specially contracted rig arrives at the site late next year, Valor said."
As has been argued before, these subsalt oil deposits don't fit the profile of "fossil" theory.
CHINA STEPS IN TO MEDIATE DISPUTE OVER OIL RIGHTS
ReplyDeleteWarships sailed into harms way for both Bangladesh and Burma over disputed petroleum rights in the Bay of Bengal.
China Urges Fair Settlement of Myanmar-Bangladesh Gas Dispute (Bloomberg) - November 7, 2008 - "China called on Myanmar and Bangladesh to settle their dispute over oil and natural-gas reserves in the Bay of Bengal that triggered a naval standoff in waters contested by the two countries.
Bangladesh deployed warships to the area about 93 kilometers (58 miles) southwest of St. Martin's island earlier this week after a Myanmar ship, escorted by three naval vessels, began oil and gas exploration. Bangladesh says the area falls within its territorial waters and summoned Myanmar's ambassador before sending envoys to the nation formerly known as Burma."
This is a positive step as China moves farther out onto the international stage in Asian affairs.
This writer has noted that many areas in Asian waters are disputed and this has delayed petroleum exploration & development. China has a significant and positive role to play in resolving these disputes, so that oil exploration & discoveries are the headlines and not naval warships coming to bear.
China's peaceful role in international relations will earn it goodwill among the nations along its rim.
This is a hopeful sign of China's intentions in the region.
There are many possibilities for oil production from higher chemical potential organic molecules in a laboratory setting, however the speculation for that one is without calculations. It is mostly ballparking it without data or figures on my part. I haven't seen any figures concerning the stability of long chain fatty acids under cooler temperatures and lower pressures in anoxic conditions (like the scenario of sudden global snowfall conditions brought on by global cooling), but I suppose it would be hasty to rule that thought out.
ReplyDeleteHowever, you say that C215H330 is present in kerogen or coal? There is no way that could ever come from organisms, I don't think. I'll take an organic chemistry next semester so I have a better grasp on the ballparking of this subject matter (plus I could actually use the knowledge from such a class).
Quantum_Flux:
ReplyDeleteYour question: "However, you say that C215H330 is present in kerogen or coal?"
C215H33 is present in kerogen. It's not that I say it, that's what "fossil" theory advocates say.
Kerogen per Wikipedia: Kerogen from the Green River Formation oil shale deposit of western North America contains elements in the proportions C 215 : H 330 : O 12 : N 5 : S 1."
Heavy atomic weight hydrocarbon, C215H330, is the "active ingredient" of the "fossil" theory "generating kitchen".
There is ample results confirming C215H330 does "crack" into lighter hydrocarbons. But the question is how does the C215H330 form?
I agree with your answer: "There is no way that could ever come from organisms, I don't think."
Coal doesn't have C215H330 in any large amounts, there could be some. Coals vary in composition.