Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Lehman Ups Transocean Target

Ahead of the Bell: Transocean shares rise

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Transocean Inc. edged higher in premarket trading on Tuesday after a Lehman Brothers analyst raised his price targets on more than three dozen oil service and drilling companies.

James Crandell raised his price target to $192 from $180 and maintained his "Overweight" rating on Transocean, a Houston-based offshore driller.

The new target price implies a return of 19 percent on Monday's closing price of $161.39. On Tuesday, shares rose 61 cents to $162 in electronic trading.

Crandell said in a note to investors that he expects a strong recovery for North American natural-gas drilling in 2008 and through 2009. He also predicted substantial growth in overseas operations for oil service and drilling companies over the next several years.


Anaconda said...


Wikipedia -- Pangaea,
Wikipedia -- Alfred Wegener,
Hydrogen sulfide [and methane] eruptions in Atlantic Ocean off Southern Africa: implications of a new view based on Sea WiFS satillite imagery.

Tectonic Plate, Continental Drift theory, as previously stated in this space, plays a seminal role in abiotic oil theory. According to J.F. Kenney, the leading abiotic oil geologist in the United States, plate tectonics as postulated by Alfred Wegener, in the early 20th century, was heavily drawn upon by the Russian abiotic scientists, when they were developing abiotic theory.

The first contention of Wegener was that a super-continent of pangaea existed some 250 million years ago, until 180 million years ago when the Pangaea supercontinent began to breakup.

So far so good.

Brazil's Petrobas oil company as previously noted has caused a stir with their contracting 80% of the ultra-deepwater, deep-drilling fleet, thus partly causing the rise of Transocean's stock price in particular, and a rise in the oilfield services sector, in general.

Brazil is blest with a pearl necklace of huge oil fields running down her lovely coastline. Should this vision pan out after exploration, discovery, and ultimately production, a supply breakthrough on an order of increased magnitude would transform the oil industry.

But you always need to look for the next big strike.

(Critical mass has been reached in the world economy -- there is huge pent up demand for oil, so much so, that it's hard to conceive of supply outstripping demand with a healthy world economy.)

Back to Pangaea: focussing where the Corioca Field is located on the Brazilian coast and superimposing a map of the super-continent Pangeae over the top reveals that where South America and Africa touch in relation to the Corioca oil field, on the African side, is present day Namibia (South-West Africa).

Why is this important? First, it's known already that sizable, deepwater, offshore oil fields exist in the Nigerian Delta. Second, it's reasonable to believe a mirror image of geological formations exist where South America and Africa touched as part of the super-continent Pangaea.

And, third, there is additional evidence that suggests the presence of huge deepwater oil deposits offshore of Namibia (South-West Africa).

It has been reported that huge spontaneous methane gas releases happen in the waters off the Namibia coast, so huge, in fact, that satillite imagery has recorded it. The outgassing recorded in the satillite photos, encompasses the entire length of the Namibian coast and onto the Angola coast line, and it's breadth is a hundred miles or so. This outgassing is periodical, or cyclical, with buildup and release over decades, with a reported outgassing in the early 20th century.

Biologists attribute this outgassing to biological buildup in the shallow sedimentary deposits.

This writer postulates the biologists are wrong. The source is deep methane periodically building up pressure and then breaking the surface tension of a series of "methane domes" present off the Namibian coast, leaving behind large oil deposits at possibly shallower, therefore, more easily assessable depths than the Brazil finds.

Abiotic oil presents a profile of exploration that provides for huge oil finds, but also smaller finds as well. Resulting in a free market where all sizes of oil companies can grow.

A market of bountiful demand and supply.

A healthy market for all.

Anaconda said...


Reviewing the scientific articles on the Namibia (South-West Africa) outgassing of methane reveals that biologists are secure in their belief that the methane (and hydrogen sulfide) is the result of biological breakdown of organic detritus deposited by the upwelling of the ocean currents off the Namibian coastline.

Why are they so confident? In the scientific literature, scientists are able to describe a theory that has a patina of plausiblity.

But there is set of constraints on their thinking. The outgassing has to come from somewhere, as it is an undeniable fact, recorded by satellite. So, of course, there must be a scientific explanation.

But these scientists do not recognize abiogenic processes that release large amounts of methane from the Earth's primordial depths as a possibility. They only know of organic breakdown of detritus, which releases methane. For these scientists, the process of elimination leaves only one conclusion.

But for scientists, who accept abiogenic processes exist on Earth as it exists on other bodies in the solar system, a simple process of elimination will not explain this outgassing phenomenon.

More scientific inquiry of the Namibian outgassing must be done, but with an open-minded approach that doesn't exclude primordial processes existent deep in the Earth.

The best science does not wear blinders.

Anaconda said...


May 21, 2008
Oil Prices Pass $132 After Government Reports Supply Drop

Inventories of crude oil and gasoline fell last week, triggering a price spike in the last several days, unleashing talk of Peak oil, or was it vice versa?

There is a chicken and egg quality to the question here.

Inventories do rise and fall on a week-to-week basis, many times with little connection to the bigger questions of overall supply and demand. The fact that a one week supply drop could trigger both a price spike and public talk of Peak oil demonstrates, regrettably, how belief in Peak oil has saturated the consciousness of the general public and the investment community.

Futures contracts, seven to eight years out, were particularly effected, confirming the investment community puts stock in Peak oil.

Much more than was generally acknowledged or understood.

The good news is that high prices will spur investment in exploration and production, the bad news is that crude oil prices will remain viotile, as long as belief in Peak oil permeates the market.

This belief will continue until the Peak oil dragon has been slayed and its bloody, severed head held high above the crowd.

The shamans of Peak oil have transfixed the crowd and only dramatic and heroic deeds will break the shamans' sway.

This can only be done by actual production from demonstratably large, new oil finds. Increasing production from existing fields will not quell the fear, even though significant production increases can be achieved.

Long lead times from exploration to production will allow Peak oil shamans plenty of opportunity to increase their sway.

America needs a new petroleum exploration and production policy, now! A policy geared to free up as much new areas to responsible exploration as possible. But there are no politicians on the horizon to lead this rightous cause.

Republicans and Democrats, alike, have put up presidential candidates that refuse to publically call for expanded exploration and production on the U.S. mainland and more important, offshore, where evidence supports potential massive new crude oil finds.

Surely, the Carolina Trough, located off the East coast of the United States would be a great place to begin expanding exploration and production in U.S. waters, please see post, Keep It Simple, September 20, 2007, Comment #2, The Carolina Trough -- A New Frontier for Oil and Gas Exploration.

When exploration and production can happen 70 miles at sea, or more, like is currently being done off the coast of Brazil. Isn't that the least step America can take in an effort to put new dramatic supplies onto the market?

Right now, America stands like a deer in headlights, frozen as the Peak oil car speeds towards it. Even 'alternative' energy development needs a healthy economy to afford the investment. And no matter what happens, it's not going to happen overnight. Failing to explore for crude oil will guarantee less oil, higher prices, a slower economy, putting America more over a barrel than it already is.

The international exploration and production market will respond, is already responding, but America must engage in self-help. Yes, politics is the art of the possible. That's why identifying areas to explore piecemeal, which are not as politically sensitive, as other areas, might get the political ball rolling. Again, the Carolina Trough is a good place to start that political process.

Also, sweetening the take for state governments, from increased royalties, might entice cash strapped states to loosen their opposition to exploration and development off their coasts, particularly, when there would be no visual blight, as all activity would be over the visual horizon.

America has opportunity to increase exploration and production here at home. It's a shame that politics is making us held hostage to the action of others overseas.

It doesn't have to be that way.

Anaconda said...


The safety record of offshore exploration and production can be held up proudly by the petroleum industry for inspection by the public.

In 2005, Hurricane Katrina and Rita battered the Gulf of Mexico, along with several other hurricanes, yet, oil platforms and other oil installations weathered the storms with no appreciable oil releases into the environment. This is testament to the safety and environmental responsiblity displayed by the U.S. oil industry.

When was the last major oil spill in U.S. waters? The Exxon Valdez, going back nearly 20 years. The oil industry learned valuble lessons and it has not been repeated since.

The last major oil release from an offshore drilling installation was the 1969 Santa Barbara oil spill nearly 40 years ago. Offshore oil exploration and production technology is much advanced from that era. Many severe storms, over the years, have been weathered with little effect.

North Sea oil platforms have been producing oil since the early 1970's with a strong safety record and little spilled oil. This area sees some of the fiercest storms in the world.

These examples demonstrate that the oil industry can explore and produce offshore crude oil in a responsible manner. This should give confidence to policy makers and public, alike, that allowing for oil exploration and production in offshore areas, while being environmentally sound, will provide increased oil supplies for domestic energy needs, and stabilize prices.

The American economy needs stable oil prices and supplies for continued growth and prosperity.

There is crude oil available for production, both domestically and internationally. So allowing America's oil production to fall, in the face of that potential supply, will only needlessly exacerbate the current economic difficulties we find ourselves in.

Fears of environmental damage are unjustified after reviewing the oil industry's safety record.

America can't afford to have one arm tied behind its back.