Sunday, August 24, 2008

Jim Rogers Says Oil To Rise For Next Decade



The bull case: Jim Rogers Says Oil Price Rise to Continue for Decade.

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly forecast the oil price would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, said he expects oil to continue to increase over the next decade.

``Over the course of time, it's a bull market,'' the chairman of Rogers Holdings said today after an investor conference in Kuala Lumpur. While the oil price could fall to $75 or rise to $175, the market will continue to increase over the next 10 years, he said.

Crude oil futures have dropped 22 percent since touching $147.27 a barrel on July 11, the highest since trading began in 1983. Oil slid more than $6 a barrel yesterday, falling the most in percentage terms since December 2004, as the rising dollar curbed demand for commodities as an inflation hedge and BP Plc restored shipments on a Caspian Sea pipeline through the former Soviet republic of Georgia to Turkey.
Also see here: Why oil won't fall below $100

Many analysts say oil is unlikely to go much lower than $100 a barrel, and it has to do with the rising cost of production.

The overall cost to produce oil has gone up, especially oil from tough to reach places like Canada's tar sands and the deep water Gulf of Mexico.

These areas require massive investment and materials to produce oil and that expense has risen as the price of commodities surge. And while they represent a small fraction of total worldwide production, they're important because some analysts believe prices won't fall below the cost of the most expensive barrel of oil.

3 comments:

Quantum_Flux said...

Off topic, but... US F-15 hit Mach 2 speeds using a synthetic Fischer-Tropsch fuel blend produced from coal. This demonstration is not necessarily good, I hope we start drilling off-shore and getting more domestic refineries some time soon.

Quantum_Flux said...

Pentagon Wants Jet Fuel Substitute

john a. bailo said...

Oil could rise, but only if it becomes a "rarity"...that is, if we stop burning it as a fuel and switch to hydrogen and natural gas, then demand may drop to 1% of what it is now...we'd still use it for things like plastics maybe and its cost could be higher...but not affecting people as much.