Monday, September 1, 2008

OPEC Production Up 4 Months In a Row

OPEC output up for 4th month in Aug: Reuters survey.

LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC oil supply rose for a fourth consecutive month in August, mainly due to higher output from Iran and smaller increases in Nigeria and Angola, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.

The survey indicates the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is pumping almost 800,000 barrels per day more than its target and comes as some members are voicing concern that the world market is oversupplied.

Extra OPEC oil and declining demand from slowing economies in the West have helped lower prices to $113 a barrel from a record $147.27 in July. OPEC meets on September 9, and some analysts expect its next move will be to trim production.

"While the bias has been towards rising output for the last year, that period is drawing to a close and it's a question of how much actual output is going to be trimmed in coming months," said Paul Horsnell of Barclays Capital.

Supply from all 13 OPEC countries climbed to 32.82 million bpd in August from 32.59 million bpd in July, according to the survey of oil firms, OPEC officials and analysts.

Iran accounted for much of the increase. OPEC's second-largest producer supplied less oil than expected in July due to limited demand for its heavier crude oil grades, which meant more crude was held in storage.

Output in August rebounded to 4.05 million bpd from 3.7 million bpd in July due to higher sales, the survey found.

Nigeria and Angola are also pumping more. In Nigeria, where attacks by militants on oil installations have curbed output, production recovered by 60,000 bpd in August.

Angola also raised output slightly, despite the shutdown on August 16 of BP Plc's 200,000 bpd Plutonio oilfield following an incident at a gas plant at the facility.

OPEC pumps about two in every five barrels of oil.


Anaconda said...


Tuesday, September 2, 2008

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices plunged Tuesday, falling to within sight of $100 a barrel a day after Hurricane Gustav tore through the Gulf of Mexico but appeared to spare oil and gas installations of massive damage.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell $7.73 to $107.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier dropping as low as $105.46. The last time prices hovered in that range was in early April before a historic run-up above $147 per barrel. Earlier in the session prices had dropped as low as $105.46.

On Friday, the contract settled at $115.46 a barrel as Gustav approached the U.S. Gulf coast, a key region for oil drilling and refining. But traders were relieved that Gustav weakened as it neared the offshore oil rigs and Louisiana refineries, and appeared to have caused less damage than expected in New Orleans and surrounding areas.

As Hurricane Gustav dissipated, traders quickly turned their attention to slowing global economic growth, speculating that demand for crude will be dampened even in rapidly expanding China and India.

"The market continues to be weighed down by worries of a global economic downturn and slowing oil demand in developing markets," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "Action by OPEC and supply side concerns should put a backstop to any sharp price drop."

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is scheduled to meet Sept. 9 in Vienna and has indicated it may take action to defend the $100 a barrel level.

Ahead of Gustav, there was some disruption to oil supplies as oil companies shut down production and evacuated facilities. Altogether, about 2.4 million barrels of refining capacity was halted, roughly 15 percent of the U.S. total, according to figures from Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. The Gulf Coast is home to nearly half of the nation's refining capacity.

It could be a day or more before oil and natural gas companies can assess the damage to their drilling and refining installations. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said as much as 20 percent of oil and gas production that was stopped because of Gustav could be restored by this weekend, but he also stressed that it was a rough estimate.


Forces are coming together to cause oil prices to plunge.

It's evident that OPEC was not at "Peak" oil production. And price does have an impact on demand. As evident by the reduction in consumption since the run up in oil prices last spring.

The Summer driving season is coming to a close in the U.S.

And the reality of new areas of oil & gas exploration and production is finally starting to hit home to the speculators.

Brazil's offshore is just one example, there are others.

Future supplies will grow and it's apparent that the "bridge" connecting those future supplies to current demand is more than adiquate.

It is solid and redundant.

Hanging long on oil simply exposes one to getting "it" lopped off.

The day of bouncing the price "wave" and then riding the "wave" is over.

And all the bitter crying and baying of "Peak" won't change that stern reality.

"Supply side concerns," aka "Peak" oil? Fat chance.

Prices below $100 a barrel? Even this writer didn't think that was a possibilty -- but here we are on the verge of that reality.

Is it a good thing?

For the world economy and in particular the U.S. economy?

An absolute yes.

The bloom has come off the rose of commodity speculation, as high prices inevitably have cut demand across the board.

Oil is just one commodity among many that has dropped off record highs.

It's time to invest in productive assets, not just speculate on future price increases.

But wait that might take some brains figuring out what companies offer possibilities for innovation and growth.

Charlie Munger -- your admonition is looking pretty sagacious.

Anaconda said...


U.S. Hands Off Pacified Anbar, Once Heart of Iraq Insurgency

Iraq is fast approaching 'normalcy' and that spells good news for oil production. Iraq has long been the wildcard of world oil production with it's proven reserves second in the Middle East and informed sources stating it's actual reserves twice as high.

Iraqi oil being of the "sweet" variety as opposed to Iran's heavy oil, suggests that Iraqi oil can displace Iran's heavy oil in world markets. Already, Iran has had trouble unloading it's heavy oil, another sign among many that "Peak" oil was always a fantasy of the hard-left and oil speculators.

On the Abiotic Oil front, it has been widely reported that Iraqi oil fields produce oil in greater quanities and for many years longer than "fossil" theory would suggest.

Oil seeps to surface in Iraq's far north

"One of the world's most prolific oil fields, the Kirkuk field, sprawls for more than 70 miles just to the southwest of the Kurdish region's border. After 74 years in production, it still churns out more than 400,000 barrels a day. Many similar geological structures extend far to the north in Kurdistan, undrilled and almost entirely unexamined."

Oil seeps in Iraq are common and instead of heavy oil, as is the rule for California oil seeps, the oil is light sweet crude, suggesting the oil is moving quickly to the surface before the lighter hydrocarbon volatiles dissipate, which is consistent with "fresh" oil rising from deep below in an active process.

As the linked article states:

"But here in the far north of Iraq, oil is literally bubbling to the surface."


"'Look at this,' said Magne Normann, the Middle East director for DNO International ASA of Norway, as he stood beside a pond of oil oozing up on a hillside. For fun, he heaved in a stone. 'What a sight,' he said, as the liquid shot three feet high. 'Pure oil.'"

Take a look at Iraq's oil geology:

GIS in an Overview of Iraq Petroleum Geology

Here is another assessment of Iraq'a potential to be another Saudi Arabia:

Assessing Iraq’s Oil Potential

Iraq has the potential to double it's oil production to 4.5 million barrels a day from the current 2.2 million barrels a day in a relatively short time span, now that stability is the fast becoming the dominant "facts on the ground."

Iraq should rightly take its place as the preminent nation in the Arab World.

"Peak" oil?

Read'em and weep.

Anaconda said...


As this post and the previous two comments have made clear, the oil "feaver" that had gripped world markets has broken.

There are no "supply" concerns on the economic horizon.

In fact, "concerns" actually center on over-supply. This is the dominant recurring cycle in the oil market. Contrary to "Peak" oil pushers that have constantly peddled their agenda to whoever was stupid enough to listen, time after time, over-supply has been the underlying theme in the history of U.S. and then world oil markets, even as oil consumption has risen around the world.

Proven oil reserves have constantly increased, not just incrementally, but exponentially.

Shoudn't that tell the "Peak" oil pushers something?

No, because they have an agenda that can't bear the facts be told.

ExxonMobil has limited their exploration in new areas and focussed their attention on increasing productivity of existing assets -- a sound policy according to Abiotic Theory -- because where there's oil, there's more oil.

Likely, ExxonMobil knew there was no "Peak" in sight, as they have stated publically many times, and, in fact, knew this was a bubble that would inevitably burst.

But others, "new players" should still get into the game. The oil price will be high enough to support new players and if they're smart and lucky they will make their money back and then some.

The money will be made by producing oil, not speculating on oil.

I would submit to readers of this website that Abiotic Theory has also contributed to the realization that "Peak" oil is false.

The science is, here, at the side-bar for inspection, without any comment, should one discount the commentary supplied by myself and others.

Don't take this writer's word for it. See for yourself.

The science stands on its own merits.

A continuous theme from "Peak" oil pushers and others in reaction to Abiotic Oil Theory has been to discourage people from analyzing the science on their own:

"Move along, there's nothing to see, there's not story, here."

It's clear, their protestations not withstanding, that they don't want Abiotic Oil closely examined.

Because, if you take off your dinosaur-tinted glasses, it becomes clear oil is Abiotic.

Spread the news: If you want to understand oil markets, oil geology, and the true origins of oil, this website is the place for smart investors, open-minded scientists, or those simply curious to know the truth about oil.

Abiotic Oil is a profound understanding on a scale to Galileo showing that the Earth revolves around the sun.

All the "Peak" oil websites?

Peddling garbage is all they do.

What's interesting is all the people who suck up the "gloom and doom."


Here, the view is positive, not because of an agenda, imperious to facts and science, but because the "facts in the ground" warrant it.

As Frank Sinatra sang in "New York, New York":

"Keep spreading the news."

The news is good and that's something to be glad about.

BF said...

"Don't take this writer's word for it. See for yourself."

I've seen for myself and I'm obliged to say that your statement is correct. There can be no question - all oil is abiotic. The science underpinning the abyssal theory is insurmountable.

BF said...

In 1963 chemist Sir Robert Robinson, a Nobel Laureate and Fellow of the Royal Society, made detailed studies of natural petroleum and concluded: Actually it cannot be too strongly emphasized that petroleum does not present the composition picture expected from modified biogenic products, and all the arguments from the constituents of ancient oils fit equally well, or better, with the conception of a primordial hydrocarbon mixture to which bio-products have been added. Alexander von Humboldt and Louis Joseph Gay-Lussac said more or less the same thing in the early 1800's. Many of Robinson's papers incidentally are held by the oil giant Shell for whom Robinson worked and have never seen the light of day.