Monday, June 30, 2008

Petrobras Could Be Worth $90 - Barron's

Petrobras could rise 25 percent - Barron's

NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - Shares of Petrobras(PBR) could rise another 25 percent if the Brazilian oil company's recently discovered offshore wells become as profitable as some expect, financial weekly Barron's reported.

The state-controlled company may be sitting on top of what may be the largest oil field find in the Western Hemisphere in 30 years, the newspaper said in its June 30 edition.

The company's U.S. listed shares, which closed at $69.23 on Friday, could rise as high as $90 within a year, Barron's said. (Reporting by Emily Chasan; Editing by Braden Reddall)
Brazil Oil Reserves Will at Least Triple, Lula Says

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Brazil will at least triple its oil reserves by exploring a new offshore area that includes the Western Hemisphere's largest discovery since 1976.

``This is very promising for Brazil,'' Lula, 62, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today at the presidential palace in Brasilia. ``We have to take advantage of this oil to develop the country.''

A tripling of proved reserves from 12.6 billion barrels would move Brazil into the world's top 10 nations in oil supplies, according to estimates from London-based BP Plc.
Also see AAPG Hedberg Conference: Hydrocarbon Habitat of Volcanic Rifted Passive Margins.

1 comment:

Anaconda said...


Investors are excited by Petrobras recent petroleum discoveries on the continental margin off Brazil's Atlantic coast.

But it has divided oil geologists.

As reflected by the following quote from the Bloomberg news article reputable oil geologists support the intial announcements of Petrobras:

"Such reservoirs beneath as much as 3,000 meters (9,840 feet) of water and 7,000 meters of seabed may contain 50 billion barrels of oil, according to Peter Wells, director of U.K. research firm Neftex Petroleum Consultants Ltd."

Other oil geologists, however, disagree.

Alan von Altendorf is president and managing director of CWSX, L.L.C., based out of Houston, Texas.

Apparently, von Altendorf does business as an oil geologist.

Mr. von Altendorf was author of an opinion piece entitled, "Petrobras: Extremely Overvalued" June 2, 2008 at the online Seeking Alpha business opinion website.

This piece was nothing but a "hit job" on Petrobras. Based on von Altendorf's geological opinion of the recent Tupi and Carioca oil finds off the coast of Brazil, made by Petrobras.

von Altendorf's main point was that the oil deposits violated the "oil window," so would be mostly natural gas.

The central quote is as follows:

"Tupi and Carioca are geologically unrelated to oil producing Campos reservoirs in a younger formation, and in contrast they are primarily gas plays because of the burial age and maturation in high temperature-high pressure environment."

Mind you, von Altendorf had no personal knowledge, and even implied Petrobras was lying about the Carioca oil find. His opinion was based entirely on theory -- "fossil" theory.

And a "made-up" corollary to "fossil" theory's "oil window" that "burial age and maturation" in proven oil wells deeper than the 15,000 feet has not been a long enough time (24 million years in the example von Altendorf cited) to turn the crude oil to natural gas.

This is a classic "out" or excuse to cover for the fact so many oil wells have been drilled beyond 15,000 feet and discovered crude oil.

von Altendorf was confronted.

"Do you subscribe to the 'oil window' theory?"

He responded: "Abiotic oil is impossible. There are no hydrocarbons in the mantle, bubling up through basement blocks. Peak oil is a reality."

Subsequently, von Altendorf placed comments after other oil opinion pieces.

In one comment, he stated: "Tar sands, deepwater, artic 'reserves' should be discounted if not entirely ignored. Abiotic sourcing is absolute hooey."

Clearly, von Altendorf's story is the "fossil" theory and "he's sticking to it."

With his "out" to cover the actual oil discoveries that contradict "fossil" theory's oil window that has proven such an absolute failure.

So von Altendorf "pooh-poohs" Petrobras.

And there are other oil geologists in his camp, I'm sure.

But right now, the "big money" is on an Abiotic theory for why there is sub-salt oil at all.

Oil geologists just aren't saying it publically, but "privately," certain oil geologists must be explaining the "facts of life" to "big time" investors that Abiotic theory is real.

More like "red hot and rolling."

And as for von Altendorf and his kind: Their phones haven't been ringing for a long time...

Without seismic imaging, one (1) out of 28 drill-holes hit oil for fossil theory, the rest are dry-holes.

That stinks!