Sunday, June 22, 2008

Plentiful New Oil

Excellent article at Seeking Alpha by Jason Schwarz: The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

The data is becoming conclusive that peak oil is a myth. High oil prices (USO) (OIL) are doing their job as oil exploration is flush with new finds:

1. An offshore find by Brazilian state oil company Petrobras (PBR) in partnership with BG Group (BRGYY.PK) and Repsol-YPF may be the world's biggest discovery in 30 years, the head of the National Petroleum Agency said. A deep-water exploration area could contain as much as 33 billion barrels of oil, an amount that would nearly triple Brazil's reserves and make the offshore bloc the world's third-largest known oil reserve. "This would lay to rest some of the peak oil pronouncements that we were out of oil, that we weren't going to find any more and that we have to change our way of life," said Roger Read, an energy analyst and managing director at New York-based investment bank Natixis Bleichroeder Inc.

2. A trio of oil companies led by Chevron Corp. (CVX) has tapped a petroleum pool deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico that could boost U.S. reserves by more than 50 percent. A test well indicates it could be the biggest new domestic oil discovery since Alaska's Prudhoe Bay a generation ago. Chevron estimated the 300-square-mile region where its test well sits could hold up to 15 billion barrels of oil and natural gas

3. Kosmos Energy says its oil field at West Cape Three Points is the largest discovery in deep water West Africa and potentially the largest single field discovery in the region.

4. A new oil discovery has been made by Statoil (STO) in the Ragnarrock prospect near the Sleipner area in the North Sea. "It is encouraging that Statoil has made an oil discovery in a little-explored exploration model that is close to our North Sea infrastructure," says Frode Fasteland, acting exploration manager for the North Sea.

5. Shell (RDS.A) is currently analyzing and evaluating the well data of their own find in the Gulf of mexico to determine next steps. This find is rumored to be capable of producing 100 billion barrels. Operating in ultra-deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the Perdido spar will float on the surface in nearly 8,000 ft of water and is capable of producing as much as 130,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.


The peak oil theory is a money making scam put out by the speculators looking for high commodity returns in a challenging market environment. Most of the above mentioned finds have occurred in the last two years alone. I didn't even mention the untapped Alaskan oil fields or the recent Danish and Australian finds. In the long term, crude prices will find stability at historic norms because there is no supply problem. How much longer will investors ignore these new oil finds?


Anaconda said...


This writer visited Seeking Alpha and read the comments section.

A lot of people are starting to sweat. Citing Colin Campbell and other "Peak" oil shills is not a good sign.

Is that a typo? Did this writer see a Shell oil find in the Gulf of Mexico that is rumored to be 100 billion barrels?

When oil briefly dipped below $10 a barrel in the late 90's, the oil companies rolled up the sidewalks.

Now, the boiler is at full pressure. And guess what? Oil is being searched for and more important found.

Plenty of money to be made from all angles in the oil business.

But scare mongering is bad for the long term investor. Steady, consistent, is the way to go. With a heads up for solid healthy trends.

"Peak" oil mongering is bad for business.

Anaconda said...


Clastic Detritus blog
(Available by direct link at left-hand column under Geo Blogs)

The above referenced blog has an interesting "Sea-Floor Sunday" feature. #22: A activlely-growing mound on the Sea-floor (June 22, 2008) has a Bathymetric color image from the Santa Monica Basin, which shows an oblong mound with a diapir in the middle, much like a "zit" that has "methane seeping" from it.

The author of the blog, while a sedimentary geologist in training, has apparently no interest in oil geology, so made no conclusions about the methane or that the mound is "growing."

This writer does.

And this writer suggests the mound is a 'solfataric', hydrocarbon feature.

The mound was reported as "growing" with the diapir or "zit" seeping methane, so apparently gas pressure from below is building up and forcing the sea-floor to push upwards causing "deformation."

In other words, "Active Pressure" is at work.

This was put to the author of the blog, but no response was given. It's a shame really because the "Sea-Floor" series is quite good, even with "tectonic salt" discussed in a linked scientific paper in one of the prior posts.

This link reafirmed the association between salt and oil.

But this growing, seeping mound can be pieced together with other reports of oil seeps off the California coast and geologic evidence of 'solfataric' action associated with oil deposits onshore.

Also, there are reports from an offshore oil well, that high pressure was encountered in the bore-hole.

(Apparently enough to "blow out" the well. Yes, the well referenced was the tragic "Santa Barbara spill" nearly forty years ago. This was the disaster that acted as the catalyst for the offshore drilling ban.)

Is the California hydrocarbon complex active? This report of the growing mound with seeping methane suggests active hydrocarbon migration toward the surface.

This paints a picture of solid evidence for Abiotic Theory.

Too bad, young geologists don't want to see it.